Word on Wall Street from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is that Tesla isn’t going to be able to get its Model 3 to market until 2018, according to Electrek.

I can’t say I’m all that surprised. Tesla hasn’t proven it has the capabilities to handle the capacity for the orders it has already received. Plus, Tesla has already said that orders placed now won’t ship for a couple of years, which was a clear confirmation that production is going to take a while to ramp up once it starts.

Jonas doesn’t think Tesla will be able to start production of the Model 3 until late next year. So much for launching sometime in late 2017, a deadline Tesla originally said it was going to meet. It’s not unusual for Tesla to miss these sorts of targets and, for the most part, I think a lot of Tesla buyers are kind of willing to wait for Musk and his team to get the Model 3 right.

Not to pat myself on the back, but I sort of saw this coming when I said that Tesla’s pre-order numbers are a “bunch of baloney” back in August. That’s because Tesla only required interested parties to make a $1,000 deposit to reserve the car and, my guess, is some folks may still back out after they start to learn more about the full cost of the car with the features they want. Consumers may also back out if the car is delayed.

The company is still unveiling some parts of the car

Tesla isn’t even finished unveiling the Model 3, after all. We got a look at the design last March and part 2 of the announcement informed buyers that the car will one day offer fully autonomous driving. A third part of the Model 3 announcement is due in the spring, when it’s possible Musk may tie the product in with a solar panel offering on the roof. That’s just speculation, though.

In any case, it looks like the Model 3 may not launch until 2018 by some accounts. Tesla may still dispute this and could still get the car to market beforehand. I just wouldn’t hold my breath for it.