Don’t upgrade your iPhone, just replace the battery. That appears to be the mantra many existing iPhone owners will adopt throughout the year as they take advantage of Apple’s discounted battery replacement program.

As such, Barclay’s analyst Mark Moskowitz predicts iPhone sales will be impacted pretty significantly this year, with up to “16M iPhones sales” at risk. That means when Apple unleashes a trio of new devices in the fall, interest may be tepid as users look to hang on to their current device.

In response to the iPhone slowdown controversy, Apple introduced a discounted battery replacement program for owners of the iPhone 6 and newer. With nearly 80 percent of iPhone users eligible to upgrade to a new phone, Moskowitz believes users will opt for the $29 battery replacement, rather than $1,000 for a new iPhone.

Apple previously said it would never shorten the lifespan of its product with an endgame to force people to upgrade, and now that Apple’s practice of slowing down old iPhones is public knowledge, it sure looks like fewer people will upgrade once their phone gets a new battery.

After news broke that Apple was slowing down old iPhones, a number of the company’s largest competitors spoke out against the practice, saying they don’t compromise their old devices.

Whether Apple’s new battery replacement has a major effect on sales remains to be seen. But with plans to double down on OLED and the possibility of a 6.5-inch model, iPhones sales will likely continue as per usual.