Shares of BBRY (now BlackBerry, formerly RIM (RIMM)), are up 12 percent Monday morning following the company's first ever Super Bowl commercial and a new "Outperform rating" from Bernstein Research.

The company issued a note today expecting the firm's stock to hit $22, Barron's noted, and said that it's "more confident in the likely success of the BlackBerry 10 launch." Bernstein Research attributed its positive outlook to "low channel inventories, strong operator support and material pent up demand." Is there really that much demand for the BlackBerry 10? We don't know in the U.S. yet, it won't launch here until next month, but there should be a solid base of current BlackBerry users that are looking forward to the new operating system.

The real question, of course, is whether or not BlackBerry can compete with the hugely popular iOS and Android mobile operating systems, and the high-end devices from Apple, Samsung and other big-name smartphone firms. "Investors now seemingly overlook the likely initial success of BlackBerry 10," Bernstein argued, without noting that, long term, BlackBerry still has a very long road ahead indeed.