Apple and Google already run most of the smartphone market thanks to iOS and Android, but in just a few years the two companies may completely dominate the industry. A new report from IDC notes that by 2020 there won’t be any room left for a third-party player.
IDC predicts that Android will continue to dominate overall. Android already runs on 81 percent of smartphones as of 2015, and it could hit 85 percent by 2020. The average price of an Android phone could also drop from $218 in 2016 to $200 in 2019, giving the company a bigger advantage in the budget-friendly market.
Apple is expected to take a hit this year when it comes iPhone sales, but the company may bounce back in 2017. The company’s new trade-in program should boost sales, boosted by the cheaper iPhone SE and rumors of a massive upgrade to the flagship iPhone coming next year. By 2020, Apple may hold 14.5 percent of the market, marking a slight drop from its current position.
As for Windows Phone, IDC doesn’t have high hopes for Microsoft’s struggling mobile OS. The software giant appears to be retreating from the market, and even a rumored Surface Phone might not be enough to save it. Still, Microsoft may be able to hold onto a sliver of the market (about 0.4 percent) in the next few years thanks to an increasingly small but devoted fanbase. BlackBerry’s homegrown OS isn’t even mentioned, so it made a good choice going with Android.
The possibility of another operating system gaining momentum in the smartphone market also seems pretty unlikely. IDC puts the “other” market share at a flat zero percent by 2020, suggesting that, by then, it really will be a two-OS race.