Nokia’s debut Windows Phone devices, in particular the Lumia 800, seem to have gotten off to a dream start for the Finnish company. The device has been incredibly popular with Windows Phone fans, and the general consensus from the media is that it’s a wonderful handset, and possibly the Windows Phone handset to beat.
Despite all that, industry analysts says its sales are set to fall short of expectations. Pacific Crest previously anticipated the Lumia 800 would achieve 2 million sales before the end of 2011, thanks to a helpful boost from the Christmas rush. However, the company has now reduced its estimate to just 500,000 units.
Similarly, Bernstein Research believes the device will ship just half a million units before the end of this year, and that it does not offer enough to become a smash hit. The company issued a statement in which it say some pretty harsh things about the handset, like it offers “no breathtaking innovation,” and that it challenges “the idea that the Nokia brand can make a meaningful difference today.” It also bashed the Windows Phone platform:
“With no breakthrough innovation, we believe Nokia’s new phones are unlikely to get traction in a highly concentrated high-end.
“Second, we don’t believe Lumia phones are competitively priced. Third, we believe in economics of increasing returns for mobile ecosystems and judge rather unlikely that Windows can gain critical mass against Android and iOS.
“Fourth, we have seen evidences of lack of traction for the Windows operating system over the last 12 months and challenge the idea that the Nokia brand can make a meaningful difference today.”
Meanwhile, analyst Pierre Ferragu, who has been researching Google Trends data, reports that the “buzz level” around the Lumia 800 is about the same as that for Nokia’s Symbian-powered N8 smartphone, which wasn’t all that successful at all.
In spite of these reactions, Nokia is reportedly very satisfied with the success of its Lumia 800 so far.
What are your thoughts on the Nokia Lumia 800? Do you think it’ll be a success, or another flop for Nokia?