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IDC: WinPho 7 Will Knock iOS Out of #2 Spot By 2015

Not to spark another platform war, but I couldn’t help but notice a nugget on the wires today: IDC believes Windows Phone 7 could trump iOS as the world’s number two mobile platform, and that it could happen in the next four years.

Over the past couple of years, an army of Android devices has marched across the scene, making it the leading platform worldwide, followed closely by iOS. WinPho 7 trails in the number-three spot. But, says IDC, that could change, thanks to Mango, the latest software update for Microsoft‘s mobile OS. Not only is this version a much-anticipated release, but with Nokia also putting out Mango-flavored WinPho devices next year, the platform is poised to take off and knock iOS off its number-two position.

More tidbits from the report:

  • iOS will drop, from 18.2% (market share) this year to 16.9% in 2015
  • Android will gain, from 38.9% to 43.8%
  • WinPho 7 will leap from 3.8% to 20.3%

WinPho’s massive jump represents a cumulative annual growth rate of 82.3 percent. And the 2015 forecast for the platform puts it at 20.3 percent — over three percentage points above iOS.

As for Blackberry and Symbian, IDC expects them to drop in market share, with the latter virtually vanishing sometime over the next four years.

It’s no secret that smartphones have been, and are still, on the rise. Worldwide, the smartphone market increased from 20 to 31 percent just last year, and this year, as more featurephone users upgrade to advanced devices, IDC predicts a huge 55 percent growth. By 2015, it figures that shipments will number nearly 1 billion.

I’m suddenly reminded of Microsoft’s bold little iPhone funeral from last September, when it predicted the platform’s demise. Anyone remember this?

So will any of these predictions influence your handset choices? Or do you doubt WinPho 7’s success, or that Blackberry could be dropping further down the list? Weigh in.

[via MobileCrunch, Brighthand, source IDC]



Adriana Lee

Adriana is the resident writer-slash-culture vulture who has written about everything from smartphones, tablets, apps, accessories, and small biz...