Sony Probability of Bankruptcy

If one algorithm is to be believed, things are looking grim for Sony. The maker of the PlayStation 4, according to Macroaxis, has a 78 percent chance of going bankrupt in the next two years.

Here’s a quote from their bankruptcy probability tool for Sony Corporation.

Based on latest financial disclosure Sony Corporation has Probability Of Bankruptcy of 78%. This is 181.53% higher than that of Consumer Goods sector, and 168.71% higher than that of Electronic Equipment industry, The Probability Of Bankruptcy for all stocks is 121.29% lower than the firm.

NeoGAF user Contra11 pulled up Microsoft and Nintendo’s probability of bankruptcy for comparison. Microsoft has a 1 percent chance of going bankrupt in two years, while Nintendo sits at a 22 percent chance. Nintendo’s odds are particularly interesting given the community mentality that the company has had one foot in the grave for nearly 20 years now.

Gaming, though, is such a small slice of what Sony does as a business. They sell TVs, sound systems, portable music devices, computers, cameras and a whole lot more. Based on the performance of the PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3 and, at least initially, the PlayStation 4, Sony’s been doing well in gaming.

Everywhere else? Perhaps not as well as the company would like.

As one of the gaming writers for this site, my knowledge of Sony as a business is sort of limited to what they do in my field. As a consumer, my perception of Sony as a maker of products changed with the minidisc and the fall of the Walkman. Sony used to dominate portable music in a crazy big way. Walkman was synonymous with portable cassette players in the same way the iPod is with MP3 players. Everything, regardless of brand, was a Walkman.

Since the fall of the Walkman brand, in my book, Sony hasn’t been the same maker of electronics. Games? They are fantastic. Otherwise? There are so many other alternatives.

Macroaxis is little more than an algorithm-based prediction tool. They use stock numbers to predict the long term health of companies, something one would need future-telling powers to predict accurately.

Despite that, this does present an interesting look at the company. Is Sony in trouble or are these numbers off?