Will RIM’s BlackBerry 10 platform succeed against iOS, Android and Windows Phone? It’s too early to tell, we won’t really know until the new operating system launches in January. But one analyst thinks that the industry, as a whole, is being too pessimistic about the platform’s future. Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu recently sent out a note to investors addressing one question: has RIM’s fortune changed?
“Our answer is yes and no,” Wu said. “Yes in the sense that consensus expectations have likely gotten too pessimistic in that there could be upside surprises. But no in that RIMM’s journey remains challenging where it will likely continue to post large operating losses and still needs to gain developer and mainstream user interest beyond carriers who fear the growing dominance of AAPL and GOOG.”
Wu’s models suggest RIM will post $11.3 billion in revenue in 2013 with a loss of $1.05 per share, versus industry estimates of $11.1 billion in revenue and a loss of $1.26 per share. “Carriers are growing increasingly leery with the growing dominance of iOS and Android and have been looking for a viable 3rd or potentially 4th platform with the hope that either BB10 and/or Windows 8 takes off.”
Wu also said developer support and customer adoption so far has been lukewarm towards platforms aside from Android and iOS, so his company is going to see how carriers react to BlackBerry 10 first before making a final judgement on whether or not there is room for a third or fourth mobile OS.