RIM’s BlackBerry 10 operating system will launch in January and the company’s first handsets powered by the new OS will follow shortly after. RIM needs those smartphones to be a success, otherwise it faces almost certain doom. Wall Street is already skeptical about RIM’s ability to deliver on its promises, and a new report from Morgan Stanley analyst Ehud Gelblum suggests BB10 could fall flat.

“We continue to believe BB10 has a low chance of success,” Gelblum said Tuesday in a report obtained by Forbes. “While some of the new features on BB10 seem innovative, we had a similar reaction to Palm’s WebOS when we saw it at CES in ‘09. Ultimately we believe BB10 is too late, and subs continue to shift to competitive devices. According to a global mobile workforce survey in mid-Oct, just 5% of respondents expect to upgrade to a BB, even below MSFT at 8%.”

Gelblum also says that developers aren’t interested in creating new applications for the platform and that the landscape is more competitive than ever.

That’s definitely a good point, considering Windows Phone 8 is now on the scene, but we’re willing to give RIM a shot with BB10 when it launches early next year before we make our own judgements.

[via Forbes]